Seminar Details
2020-06-09 (14:00) : Online prediction of COVID19 dynamics. Belgian case study
At MS Teams
Organized by Mathematical Engineering
Speaker :
Nesterov, Yurii
Abstract :
In this talk, we present a new axiomatic model of epidemic development, which is consistent with the very special features of COVID19. This is a discrete-time switching linear model for predicting the dynamics of total number of infected persons and concentration of the asymptomatic virus holders in population. A small number of its parameters can be tuned using the available real-time dynamic data on virus propagation. Therefore, this model provides us also with online prediction of the future. As an application example, we present the conclusions of this model for epidemic of COVID19 in Belgium in 2020. During several months, our predictions were exact, typically, within the accuracy of 0.5%.